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Investors are returning to U.S. commercial real estate in force, driven not by cheaper loans but by a fresh wave of liquidity from multiple corners of the financial sector. The renewed competition for properties shows up in recent bidding and credit indices compiled by JLL, signaling a notable shift in market dynamics.
Stronger bidding, more players
JLL’s quarterly indexes show bidding activity climbed sharply in June, marking the biggest single-month improvement in a year. July also registered heavy engagement: it recorded the second-highest number of unique bidders in the index’s five-year history.
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At the same time, competition among lenders sits well above prior peaks, according to JLL. That rising intensity reflects not only more bidders but also a widening set of funding sources willing to underwrite transactions.
Credit availability is leading the comeback
JLL research director Lauro Ferroni said the data suggest a narrowing gap between the credit intensity index and the bid intensity index. In his view, increases in credit availability tend to precede stronger bidding because they set the tone for overall liquidity.
“We’ve actually found that the credit intensity index is a leading indicator for the bid intensity index,” Ferroni said, noting that easier access to capital helps fuel purchase activity even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Where the capital is going
Investors are particularly focused on **retail** and **industrial** assets. Retail’s comeback is noteworthy because the sector had lagged after e-commerce growth during the pandemic. Owners now appear content with returns and less inclined to sell, which has tightened supply and pushed bidders to compete more aggressively.
Industrial demand remains robust after several years of strong performance. Factors cited include the expansion of e-commerce and a wave of reshoring and reindustrialization that brings manufacturing closer to U.S. operations. A midyear report from CBRE found manufacturing leasing rose 27% year over year.
Multifamily still trailing
By contrast, multifamily has lagged other sectors in both bidding and credit activity. The market is coping with a historic volume of newly built units. While overall vacancies are beginning to decline, much of that improvement stems from newer properties still in lease-up.
CoStar data show stabilized vacancies—an indicator that removes properties still leasing up—were up 34 basis points in the second quarter, underlining persistent pressure in the sector.
Outlook and potential headwinds
Despite volatility in the broader economy, Ferroni described the current expansion in bidding as measured rather than excessive. He said there appears to be “quite a bit of gas left in the tank for further growth,” and that the rebound looks gradual instead of frothy.
Policy moves could reinforce that confidence. The U.S. Treasury’s recent decision to purchase long-term bonds may ease conditions for underwriters and make lenders more willing to compete on pricing, the JLL team suggested.
Correction: This story was revised to clarify that JLL reported June produced the strongest monthly improvement in bidding in a year. An earlier version misstated the timing.
