Experts offer bracket picks and daring forecasts for the 2026 WNBA playoffs

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Seedings were not finalized until the last night of the regular season, but the first-round matchups for the 2026 WNBA playoffs are now set, and the bracket offers plenty of storylines. Questions loom over top teams and newcomers alike — from Cheryl Reeve’s Lynx to Caitlin Clark’s Fever, Angel Reese’s postseason debut, and what to expect from the Liberty.

Player primed for a breakout

Clare Brennan: Shakira Austin emerged as a cornerstone for Washington this year. She helped the Mystics rank second in paint scoring (42.9 points per game) and anchors a defense that allows just 82.5 points on average. If Washington shocks the bracket with a deep run, Austin’s dominance inside will be the main reason.

Shakira Austin-style post player scoring in the paint during a game
Dominant inside play can swing playoff series; Mystics’ interior scoring matters.

Dan Falkenheim: Keep an eye on rookie Pauline Astier. The French guard has been a clutch option more often than some established veterans, posting a higher late-game usage than Veronica Burton, Courtney Williams and Austin. Astier’s ability to attack the rim, create for others and compete defensively fits postseason basketball well.

Blake Silverman: Bench sparkplug Janelle Salaün has quietly been indispensable for Golden State. She averages 12.7 points in just over 22 minutes per game and provides the Valkyries with scoring punch off the bench. If Golden State’s defense continues to set the tone, Salaün could be the go-to option for big perimeter shots in tight moments.

Dark horse team to watch

Brennan: The Mystics are farther along than many anticipated. Labeled the self-styled “young hos,” they’ve blended rookie contributions with established pieces to become a postseason threat. Washington’s stingy defense forms a bedrock, but the team also ranks near the top in paint production, making them hard to defend.

Falkenheim: The Fever still carry offensive firepower that could overwhelm opponents. Yes, concerns about their defense remain, but with Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell pairing at the top of their game, plus Aliyah Boston’s consistent presence, Indiana can outscore a lot of teams. A five-player grouping featuring Clark, Mitchell, Lexie Hull, Makayla Timpson and Boston posts a 96.4 defensive rating — seventh-best among qualifying lineups — which underlines how the lineup can hold up when it clicks.

Silverman: The Liberty are a dangerous No. 8 seed. New York closed the regular season on a 13–4 stretch before finishing with consecutive losses to Atlanta, but their late surge shows they can heat up. A first-round draw with Minnesota will be a stiff test, however — matching up with Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu is no small task.

Bold prediction

Brennan: The Dream finally snap a decade-plus postseason drought and win a playoff series. Atlanta has fallen in opening rounds recently, but the addition of Angel Reese and the leadership of Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray give the team the pieces to clear that hurdle.

WNBA bench players celebrating a playoff victory
Atlanta’s revamped roster could celebrate a long-awaited playoff series win.

Falkenheim: Rookie Olivia Miles pulls off a rare feat: winning Rookie of the Year and Finals MVP in the same season. Only Cheryl Ford (2003) and Maya Moore (2011) previously combined a ROTY season with a championship. Miles has shown top-tier play already, and if she adapts to playoff defensive schemes, the path to a Finals MVP is plausible.

Silverman: The postseason stays free of off-court distractions that steal headlines from the games. This season featured several moments that diverted attention from standout performances — the hope is that playoff coverage centers on basketball, not interruptions, so the on-court storylines get their deserved spotlight.

Champion pick

Brennan: The safe bet is the Lynx. Despite a late-season wobble, Cheryl Reeve’s team still has the depth and playoff-tested veterans to mount a title run. If rookie contributions hold up and the roster avoids major health issues, Minnesota has the pieces to reach the top.

Falkenheim: Also backing the Lynx, he notes the team’s ceiling remains unmatched. Minnesota’s performance earlier in the year demonstrated a level few others matched, and the bench has shown it can step up. The pick hinges largely on health — particularly the availability of key contributors.

Silverman: Going a different direction, he favors the Aces. Las Vegas enters the playoffs red-hot and still features A’ja Wilson, who is a frontrunner for a record fifth MVP, along with Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. Even with injuries like NaLyssa Smith’s, the Aces’ core shooting and playmaking make them a formidable title contender.

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