Show summary Hide summary
- Why this matters
- TIER I: The hottest seats
- 1. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets
- TIER II: An impossible evaluation
- 3. Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
- TIER III: Established names battling staleness, time and circumstance
- 4. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
- 5. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
- 6. Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 7. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
- 8. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles
- TIER IV: If the floor totally collapses, we may have a conversation on our hands
- 9. Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
- 10. Robert Saleh, Tennessee Titans
- 11. Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
- 12. DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
We’re just four games into a 17-game NFL season, but ownership across the league is already circling potential fixes — and the easiest lever to pull remains a coaching change. A mix of high-profile early surprise seasons and a deep pool of young offensive minds has the winter interview circuit shaping up to be unusually active.
Why this matters
Last offseason produced 10 head-coaching hires, yet several trends suggest this year might not be a quiet follow-up. Teams that expected to rebuild have sprinted out of the gate, while a crop of promising offensive assistants—many of them very young—are now on the market or proving themselves in new roles.
Ultra-thin women smoking cigarettes are making a comeback as a fashion trend
Windows Memory Diagnostic explained: what the test does and how to read results
That matters because organizations value experienced play-callers who can convert short-term roster improvements into wins. When those coordinators are available, general managers and owners face a “hire now” pressure: take the candidate or watch a rival do it.
TIER I: The hottest seats
1. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers remain a desirable job on paper — a manageable division, some veteran talent and at least a serviceable quarterback. But Tampa Bay’s results have not matched expectations. The team’s defense was among the 10 worst in the NFL in EPA per play from Weeks 12–18 last season, and the new offense struggled early this year.
Bowles’ tenure has been marred by recurring losing streaks and some puzzling in-game choices that once read as clever but now look ill-timed. Tampa Bay tends to conduct thorough coach evaluations, and when local coverage begins openly questioning a coach’s standing, it’s often a signal that the front office is already planning. The next stretch of the schedule contains several challenging matchups that could determine his fate.
2. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets
Glenn’s second season opened with optimism after adding Frank Reich as offensive coordinator, yet persistent problems remain. Clock management and late-game point differentials have undercut several chances to win, and the Jets’ performance in close moments is a recurring concern.
Beyond immediate game decisions, there’s a larger franchise issue: New York is slated to control multiple first-round picks in 2027, and ownership may be reluctant to hand those pivotal choices to a coach who can’t yet show consistent roster-building outcomes. How the Jets’ top young draft choices develop will play into evaluations of Glenn’s long-term fit.
TIER II: An impossible evaluation
3. Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
Quinn occupies a curious middle ground. Washington’s offense surged with Jayden Daniels in 2024, yet injuries and defensive limitations followed in 2025. The Commanders surprised in Week 3 and kept pace in London recently despite operating without their starter for stretches, showing resilience on both sides of the ball.
Since Quinn arrived, Washington’s defense has improved — though only one team had a worse EPA per play figure early on. The club’s front office originally pursued younger play-caller candidates, and Quinn was a steadier, safer hire. If the team loses momentum when Daniels returns from injury, Quinn’s job will be reevaluated; for now, many of his shortfalls look tied to roster construction more than pure coaching.
TIER III: Established names battling staleness, time and circumstance
4. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
LaFleur’s late-season contract extension effectively postponed a reckoning, putting him in a similar position to last year: a coach with guaranteed security but limited runway for improvement. Green Bay entered this stretch at 2–2 and faces perception problems amplified by injuries.
The roster has been hammered by absences — roughly 30% of the cap is tied to players on injured reserve or on the commissioner-exempt list — which complicates any fair evaluation. Still, coaching miscues such as penalties and questionable fourth-down calls have been part of the narrative. LaFleur has produced some defensive and rushing improvements, but the coming weeks will show whether those gains can translate into wins.
5. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Taylor’s team looked like a step backward following a loss to the Jaguars that resembled the Bengals’ 2025 struggles. The offense’s running game has been especially disappointing; Taylor’s staff produced only 17 rushing yards from the running backs in one outing, a level of inefficiency that’s hard to justify with the personnel available.
Taylor still benefits from past playoff runs, including a surprise Super Bowl trip in 2021, but the coach is under contract through 2027, making this the offseason when the organization will decide whether to patch or pivot. With Joe Burrow’s prime years ticking, sustained mediocrity would keep Taylor in the headlines and on the hot seat conversation.
6. Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers
McCarthy is one of two first-year coaches on this list. At nearly 63, he faces a Steelers offense that ranks among the league’s worst early in the season. Pittsburgh also appears to be on the cusp of a significant roster rebuild, a process many felt would be better led by the younger, up-and-coming candidates the team once pursued.
McCarthy was viewed by some as a compromise hire given his experience and regional ties. If the offense remains inept and the locker-room optics degrade, McCarthy could end up a one-and-done solution despite his track record in earlier challenging scenarios.
7. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Steichen and GM Chris Ballard received a public warning after the Colts’ late-season collapse last year. The fourth-year coach has delivered moderate win totals but has yet to reach the postseason.
That said, Indianapolis’ strength lies in its rushing attack. The Colts rank highly in rushing success rate and lead the league in rushing EPA, a sign that Steichen’s offense can control games. Still, time-management errors in close contests — including a questioned handling of an end-of-game situation against Kansas City — have placed his situational judgment under scrutiny. If Indianapolis falters, Steichen would be an attractive candidate on the market.
8. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles
Sirianni’s team endured a dramatic collapse against the Rams, but context matters: the Eagles were missing a long list of key players and still competed for three quarters. That resilience points to the kind of coach Sirianni is — a manager of culture and buy-in.
His vulnerability comes from being a non–play-calling head coach in a team that has lost continuity at offensive coordinator. Philadelphia’s second-half offensive drop-offs and turnover at the coordinator position create an enduring analytical case for bringing in a head coach who also calls plays, especially if the offense can’t recover.
TIER IV: If the floor totally collapses, we may have a conversation on our hands
9. Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are experiencing a difficult stretch. Their offensive line is thin, the roster has been hit by injuries, and the fit between recent coaching hires and current personnel has been questioned. Still, Harbaugh arrived with immediate wins, posting back-to-back 11-win seasons, which gives him cushion.
Longer term, Harbaugh’s job will hinge on his ability to steady public messaging and stabilize the operation. If the team becomes unmanageable on and off the field in the months ahead, Harbaugh would quickly appear among high-profile replacement candidates.
10. Robert Saleh, Tennessee Titans
Saleh inherited a roster that needed rebuilding and has shown progress, particularly on defense. Over the past two weeks the Titans ranked near the middle of the league in EPA per play allowed, and rookie wide receiver Carnell Tate had a breakout performance with nine catches for 145 yards.
Still, Tennessee must generate momentum for a new stadium project set to open in 2027. Ownership will likely want a signature result to build excitement; a prolonged stretch without wins deep into October and November would raise difficult questions about whether a drastic splash move is required.
11. Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Campbell has been widely credited with transforming the Lions’ culture after the Matt Patricia era. He is a coach who prioritizes buy-in and identity, and the schedule initially looked favorable for a turnaround.
But recent performances, including a game in which Tetairoa McMillan torched Detroit’s secondary, have exposed cracks. The visible fatigue or frustration among stars such as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams could become contagious if not addressed. Campbell’s decisions to publicly back his defensive coordinator carry both upside and risk in a locker room built on identity.
12. DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
Ryans has largely avoided the blame for Houston’s uneven seasons thanks to instability at quarterback and on the staff. That cover may be eroding: the Texans were picked apart by their in-state rivals in a game that many expected them to win, and the defense struggled to contain CeeDee Lamb.
After Ryans publicly promised meaningful change following the team’s fourth straight loss to start the season, evaluation will hinge on how the Texans respond. The roster has talent and a more favorable stretch of opponents ahead; strong results would quiet critics, while continued inconsistency would escalate pressure on the head coach.
