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- 1. Tarik Skubal, SP
- 2. Michael King, SP
- 3. Teruaki Sato, 3B/RF
- 4. Freddy Peralta, SP
- 5. Seiya Suzuki, RF
- 6. Brandon Lowe, 2B
- 7. Trevor Rogers, SP
- 8. Luis Arraez, 2B
- 9. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/3B
- 10. Randy Arozarena, LF
- 11. Jake Bauers, 1B/OF
- 12. Adrian Morejon, RP
- 13. Clay Holmes, SP
- 14. Kaima Taira, SP
- 15. David Bednar, RP
- 16. Sonny Gray, SP
- 17. Ryan Jeffers, C
- 18. Ian Happ, LF
- 19. Casey Mize, SP
- 20. Shota Imanaga, SP
- 21. Kevin Gausman, SP
- 22. Foster Griffin, SP
- 23. Tyler Mahle, SP
- 24. Hiromi Itoh, SP
- 25. Dustin May, SP
- 26. Kris Bubic, SP
- 27. Michael Soroka, SP
- 28. Ty France, 1B
- 29. Nick Martinez, SP
- 30. Sean Newcomb, RP
- 31. Raisel Iglesias, RP
- 32. Tyler Stephenson, C
- 33. Gleyber Torres, 2B
- 34. Nick Pivetta, SP
- 35. Carson Kelly, C
- 36. Mauricio Dubón, UT
- 37. J.P. Crawford, IF
- 38. Alex Vesia, RP
- 39. Emilio Pagan, RP
- 40. Evan Phillips, RP
This offseason could reshape rosters in ways fans and front offices didn’t expect. A handful of notable names headline a class that, beyond its top tier, appears shallower than in recent years — and a looming Collective Bargaining Agreement expiration may further disrupt how teams shop in free agency.
1. Tarik Skubal, SP
Age: 30 | Former team: Dodgers/Tigers
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Skubal is the clear top prize. Despite missing time for arthroscopic elbow surgery, the left-hander posted a 2.72 ERA in 2026 and still ranks first among pitchers with a combined 18.0 fWAR over the past three seasons. Teams are expected to bid aggressively; his market could eclipse Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million total guarantee and the roughly $43.3 million average annual value set by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, depending on how wild the bidding becomes.
Will’s prediction: Angels (nine years, $400 million) — Nick’s prediction: Mets (10 years, $420 million)
2. Michael King, SP
Age: 32 | Former team: Padres
Once a swingman in New York, King developed into San Diego’s top starter the past three seasons. He posted a 3.15 ERA among pitchers with at least 300 innings in that span and was strong in the postseason, allowing one run in 14 innings. Lacking a dominant fastball, King gets by with pitch mix and command, which raises questions about the upside teams will buy into for a long-term commitment.
Will’s prediction: Padres (four years, $104 million) — Nick’s prediction: Padres (four years, $100 million)
3. Teruaki Sato, 3B/RF
Age: 28 | Former team: Hanshin Tigers (NPB)
Sato projects as a power-first corner bat in the mold of Munetaka Murakami but with fewer NPB strikeouts. Scouts flag defensive limitations that could push him to first base full time, yet his bat carries significant upside. Expect teams to view him as a candidate for a near nine-figure contract.
Will’s prediction: Yankees (four years, $100 million) — Nick’s prediction: Yankees (four years, $90 million)
4. Freddy Peralta, SP
Age: 31 | Former team: Rays/Mets
Peralta’s 2026 season was uneven: a strong finish in Tampa after a rough stretch in New York, but lower whiff and strikeout rates than earlier in his career. He remains a high-innings pitcher — one of six to throw at least 160 innings in each of the last four seasons — and teams that value durability may pay for that workload.
Will’s prediction: Cubs (four years, $100 million) — Nick’s prediction: Red Sox (four years, $92 million)
5. Seiya Suzuki, RF
Age: 32 | Former team: Cubs
In a year when the free-agent bat crop is thin, Suzuki stands out for steady production. He averaged roughly 25 homers and 140–147 hits across the last four seasons while posting an .833 OPS and a career-high .368 OBP in 2026. He also made a notable defensive jump, earning Gold Glove finalist honors.
Will’s prediction: Blue Jays (five years, $120 million) — Nick’s prediction: Padres (four years, $110 million)
6. Brandon Lowe, 2B
Age: 32 | Former team: Pirates
Lowe provided the power the Pirates sought, hitting 35 homers and producing a 121 wRC+. He reached a career-high 4.9 fWAR in 2026 and dramatically improved defensively. Long-term questions remain about his ability to remain at second base as he ages.
Will’s prediction: Pirates (three years, $72 million) — Nick’s prediction: Pirates (four years, $84 million)
7. Trevor Rogers, SP
Age: 29 | Former team: Orioles
Rogers began 2026 poorly but rebounded, posting a 2.90 ERA over his final 20 starts after early-season struggles. He set a new innings high (169 2/3) and showed improved control, offering a reliable mid-rotation profile for teams willing to bet on consistency if he remains healthy.
Will’s prediction: White Sox (four years, $84 million) — Nick’s prediction: Nationals (four years, $92 million)
8. Luis Arraez, 2B
Age: 30 | Former team: Phillies/Giants
The three-time batting champion reaches base by contact rather than power. He’s one of only two second basemen with eight straight seasons of above-average offense, but his ceiling is limited by a lack of power and uneven second-half performance after being traded to Philadelphia. Still, improved defense and a strong track record should produce better offers than the one-year deal he took for 2026.
Will’s prediction: Giants (three years, $51 million) — Nick’s prediction: Tigers (three years, $56 million)
9. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/3B
Age: 29 | Former team: Yankees
Chisholm remains one of baseball’s elite power-speed threats, averaging roughly 24 homers and 37 steals in recent seasons. Durability concerns and a near-30% strikeout rate temper his value, and defensive metrics paint a mixed picture. At 29 he still carries prime potential but needs to reduce the swing-and-miss to become a more reliable everyday player.
Will’s prediction: Angels (four years, $88 million with opt-outs) — Nick’s prediction: Angels (two years, $48 million)
10. Randy Arozarena, LF
Age: 32 | Former team: Mariners
Arozarena has produced consistently since 2021, mixing power and speed and delivering a strong 2026 (.281/.381/.484). Yet his defense and running metrics are concerning; he posted -16 OAA over three seasons, worst among left fielders. Teams weighing a long-term deal will demand a heavy offensive return to offset defensive shortcomings.
Will’s prediction: Astros (four years, $104 million) — Nick’s prediction: Mariners (three years, $72 million)
11. Jake Bauers, 1B/OF
Age: 31 | Former team: Brewers
Bauers exploded in Milwaukee, becoming the 2026 NLCS MVP and producing the fourth-best wRC+ among lefties. That postseason performance vaulted his market value, though replicating that peak may be unlikely. Teams should expect a short-term, well-paid deal for a left-handed power bat.
Will’s prediction: Mets (three years, $54 million) — Nick’s prediction: Brewers (three years, $51 million)
12. Adrian Morejon, RP
Age: 28 | Former team: Padres
Morejon closed out a strong three-year run with a 2.83 ERA and a 30.4% strikeout rate across 86 innings in 2026. He ranks near the top of relievers in innings and fWAR for that span, pitches in the high-90s, and induces grounders at a high rate. For teams chasing a high-leverage lefty, he’ll be among the most sought-after bullpen pieces.
Will’s prediction: Phillies (three years, $51 million) — Nick’s prediction: Rangers (three years, $66 million)
13. Clay Holmes, SP
Age: 34 | Former team: Cubs/Mets
Holmes’ season was disrupted by a broken leg, but he performed well as a starter when healthy, posting a 3.29 ERA and leading qualified pitchers with a 60.7% groundball rate over at least 100 innings. His injury wasn’t arm-related, making him an attractive mid-rotation option, likely with shorter term and solid average annual value.
Will’s prediction: Cubs (two years, $46 million) — Nick’s prediction: Cubs (two years, $40 million)
14. Kaima Taira, SP
Age: 27 | Former team: Seibu Lions (NPB)
Taira’s unconventional build and 2026 breakout — a 1.36 ERA across 146 innings after two bullpen years — make him intriguing. He sits mid-90s with a splitter that misses bats. Translation from NPB to MLB is always uncertain, but his age and performance suggest high upside for teams open to paying for projectability.
Will’s prediction: Giants (three years, $36 million) — Nick’s prediction: White Sox (three years, $51 million)
15. David Bednar, RP
Age: 32 | Former team: Yankees
Aside from a down year in 2024, Bednar has been consistently elite, posting sub-3.00 ERAs and high K-BB% in multiple seasons. In 2026 he produced a 30.8% whiff rate and a career-best 51.4% groundball rate. He profiles as one of the more reliable relievers on the market and should secure a lucrative multi-year agreement.
Will’s prediction: Yankees (three years, $51 million) — Nick’s prediction: Yankees (three years, $45 million)
16. Sonny Gray, SP
Age: 37 | Former team: Red Sox
Gray led MLB in wins in 2026 while posting a 2.72 ERA and continues to eat innings, one of six pitchers to top 160 innings in each of the last four seasons. His veteran craft and track record make him a candidate for a short multi-year deal, though age raises the usual durability concerns.
Will’s prediction: Braves (two years, $50 million) — Nick’s prediction: Mets (two years, $56 million)
17. Ryan Jeffers, C
Age: 30 | Former team: Twins
Jeffers is a rare catching bat, posting a 128 wRC+ over 92 games despite missing time with a broken hamate. Over the past four seasons he’s produced a 119 wRC+. Given his limited starts behind the plate historically, teams may plan for him to split time or see him get DH opportunities.
Will’s prediction: Yankees (three years, $45 million) — Nick’s prediction: Yankees (three years, $48 million)
18. Ian Happ, LF
Age: 32 | Former team: Cubs
Happ arrives with a decade of consistent, above-average offense and four straight 20-home run seasons. Still, a growing strikeout rate and struggles versus left-handed pitching limit him to a complementary bat role rather than a lineup centerpiece.
Will’s prediction: Royals (two years, $42 million) — Nick’s prediction: Padres (two years, $36 million)
19. Casey Mize, SP
Age: 30 | Former team: Padres/Tigers
Mize flashed a midseason breakout in his walk year but faltered after a trade to San Diego, leaving teams to choose which version is more predictive. He has improved his slider and strikeout rates in recent seasons but has not yet reached 150 innings since Tommy John surgery in 2022.
Will’s prediction: Tigers (two years, $42 million) — Nick’s prediction: Braves (two years, $36 million)
20. Shota Imanaga, SP
Age: 33 | Former team: Cubs
Imanaga’s 2026 season sat between an excellent 2024 debut and a disappointing follow-up year. He matched his rookie strikeout total (174) but allowed 35 homers. He projects as a mid-rotation starter and teams will weigh whether to commit beyond two years given his peak likely being behind him.
Will’s prediction: Angels (two years, $40 million) — Nick’s prediction: Astros (two years, $34 million)
21. Kevin Gausman, SP
Age: 36 | Former team: Cubs/Blue Jays
Gausman has been a steady innings provider over recent seasons, but 2026 represented a decline: a 4.51 ERA and a spike in home run rate to 1.32 HR/9. With velocity down slightly, he now profiles more as a dependable back-of-the-rotation innings eater than a high-end option.
Will’s prediction: White Sox (one year, $15 million) — Nick’s prediction: White Sox (one year, $20 million)
22. Foster Griffin, SP
Age: 31 | Former team: Nationals/Guardians
After returning from Japan, Griffin posted a 3.60 ERA and earned an All-Star nod with Washington, then was used in varied roles after a trade. He offers command and a broad pitch mix, and his 2026 performance should translate into multi-year interest.
Will’s prediction: Blue Jays (two years, $40 million) — Nick’s prediction: Angels (two years, $34 million)
23. Tyler Mahle, SP
Age: 32 | Former team: Braves/Rangers
Mahle showed flashes of ace-level pitching during parts of 2025 and again after a midseason trade in 2026, finishing with 162 1/3 innings (including postseason). Previous injury history tempers multi-year appeal, so a shorter deal is likelier.
Will’s prediction: Braves (two years, $36 million) — Nick’s prediction: Braves (two years, $30 million)
24. Hiromi Itoh, SP
Age: 29 | Former team: Nippon-Ham Fighters (NPB)
Consistent in NPB with six straight seasons of at least 150 innings and a 2.91 career ERA, Itoh relies on command and a diverse pitch mix more than overpowering velocity. He projects as a reliable mid-rotation arm who could earn a solid multi-year MLB contract.
Will’s prediction: Astros (three years, $30 million) — Nick’s prediction: Cardinals (two years, $24 million)
25. Dustin May, SP
Age: 29 | Former team: Brewers/Cardinals
May battled through multiple Tommy John surgeries but still flashes high-end stuff. He put together his first fully healthy season, making 31 starts and 145 2/3 innings. Inconsistency over multiple trips through lineups suggests his best role may be a back-end starter who can provide playoff bulk innings.
Will’s prediction: Twins (two years, $32 million) — Nick’s prediction: A’s (two years, $34 million)
26. Kris Bubic, SP
Age: 29 | Former team: Dodgers/Royals
Bubic reached a 2.55 ERA in 2025 but has been hampered by shoulder injuries that limited his 2026 workload. When healthy, he showed top-end upside, but availability concerns will be central to how teams value him this winter.
Will’s prediction: Nationals (two years, $28 million) — Nick’s prediction: Diamondbacks (two years, $32 million)
27. Michael Soroka, SP
Age: 29 | Former team: Diamondbacks
Soroka provided encouraging signs in Arizona, posting a 3.41 ERA and 3.19 FIP while topping 100 innings for the first time since his early-career breakout. Some injuries cropped up, but at 29 he has a reasonable chance to land a first multi-year deal.
Will’s prediction: Giants (two years, $34 million) — Nick’s prediction: Brewers (two years, $36 million)
28. Ty France, 1B
Age: 32 | Former team: Padres
France revived his career on a minor-league deal with San Diego, hitting .295/.363/.502 with 21 homers across 133 games. He punished both left- and right-handed pitching and provided strong defense at first, making him a credible everyday option.
Will’s prediction: Pirates (two years, $30 million) — Nick’s prediction: Mets (two years, $34 million)
29. Nick Martinez, SP
Age: 36 | Former team: Rays
Martinez enjoyed a late-career resurgence in Tampa Bay, making his first All-Star team and starting Game 1 of the World Series. He led MLB in low walk rate and delivered 180 innings with a 3.10 ERA, though his lack of swing-and-miss means he needs strong defense behind him.
Will’s prediction: Cubs (two years, $32 million) — Nick’s prediction: Giants (two years, $28 million)
30. Sean Newcomb, RP
Age: 34 | Former team: White Sox
Newcomb reinvented himself as a multi-inning reliever, posting a 2.91 ERA and 3.12 FIP over the last two years. He has improved control and has kept the ball in the yard, making him an upgrade candidate for teams seeking length in late innings.
Will’s prediction: Rangers (two years, $22 million) — Nick’s prediction: Dodgers (two years, $20 million)
31. Raisel Iglesias, RP
Age: 37 | Former team: Braves
Iglesias rebounded in Atlanta with a 2.55 ERA and 34 saves, earning his first All-Star nod at 36. He continues to generate swings out of the zone at elite rates, though a modest decline in strikeouts and age suggest a one-year contract is likeliest.
Will’s prediction: Tigers (one year, $15 million) — Nick’s prediction: Reds (one year, $15 million)
32. Tyler Stephenson, C
Age: 30 | Former team: Reds
Stephenson has overcome early-career injuries to deliver steady offense for several seasons, averaging about 15 homers and ample plate appearances. Everyday catchers who hit at league average are scarce, and Stephenson should attract multiple suitors.
Will’s prediction: Giants (one year, $10 million) — Nick’s prediction: Reds (one year, $12 million)
33. Gleyber Torres, 2B
Age: 30 | Former team: Tigers
Torres produced modest power in his two seasons with Detroit but has settled into the profile of a slightly above-average bat who can handle second base capably. Consistency favors him finding a two-year deal after a run of one-year pacts.
Will’s prediction: Diamondbacks (two years, $32 million) — Nick’s prediction: A’s (two years, $28 million)
34. Nick Pivetta, SP
Age: 34 | Former team: Padres
Pivetta missed most of 2026 with an elbow injury but returned in September and was effective, posting a 2.30 ERA in 31 1/3 innings. That late-season stretch should reassure teams he’s healthy, though a one-year prove-it deal seems likely.
Will’s prediction: Padres (one year, $10 million) — Nick’s prediction: Cardinals (one year, $16 million)
35. Carson Kelly, C
Age: 32 | Former team: Cubs
Kelly moved from a quality backup role into steadier playing time and posted a .335 OBP across his recent two-year stretch. He offers solid plate discipline and enough pop to reach double-digit homers, making him a strong everyday catching candidate despite being a step behind Stephenson offensively.
Will’s prediction: Angels (one year, $9 million) — Nick’s prediction: Angels (one year, $10 million)
36. Mauricio Dubón, UT
Age: 32 | Former team: Braves
Dubón had the best season of his career in 2026, delivering career highs in homers, RBIs, stolen bases and hits while playing 153 games. His defensive versatility — plus three Gold Gloves in four years — makes him a coveted utility piece for contenders.
Will’s prediction: Red Sox (two years, $20 million) — Nick’s prediction: Mariners (one year, $10 million)
37. J.P. Crawford, IF
Age: 32 | Former team: Mariners
Crawford voluntarily moved off shortstop to clear the position for a prospect, reflecting his changing defensive profile. His range has declined since 2020, and while he showed he can handle third base, his offensive output (.221/.335/.352, 14 homers) suggests a role as a second baseman or versatile infielder going forward.
Will’s prediction: Reds (one year, $10 million) — Nick’s prediction: Nationals (one year, $10 million)
38. Alex Vesia, RP
Age: 31 | Former team: Dodgers
Vesia has been a model of consistency as a lefty reliever, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 32.6% strikeout rate over his Los Angeles tenure. He also excelled in the postseason, and despite a higher-than-desired walk rate, his profile should attract teams seeking a low-risk bullpen upgrade.
Will’s prediction: Yankees (two years, $21 million) — Nick’s prediction: Padres (two years, $20 million)
39. Emilio Pagan, RP
Age: 36 | Former team: Reds
Pagan accepted a qualifying offer and delivered 25 saves with a 3.38 ERA in 2026, despite missing time for a hamstring strain. His strikeout rate dipped slightly, and at 36 he’ll likely land another one-year deal to close or handle high-leverage innings.
Will’s prediction: Nationals (one year, $11 million) — Nick’s prediction: Tigers (one year, $12 million)
40. Evan Phillips, RP
Age: 32 | Former team: Dodgers
Phillips returned from Tommy John surgery midseason and posted a 3.46 ERA with a strong 25.5% K-BB rate in 26 innings. He did allow a career-high home run rate, but if that normalizes he projects as a useful high-leverage bullpen arm for teams seeking short-term relief help.
Will’s prediction: Dodgers (one year, $10 million) — Nick’s prediction: Astros (one year, $10 million)
