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Cox Automotive has reduced its outlook for used-car values, saying prices will be essentially flat this year as rising fuel costs and broader inflation squeeze buyers. The revision signals a cooling market after dramatic swings during the pandemic and could limit how much dealers can charge at retail.
Forecast trimmed to near zero
The company cut its projection for the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index from a 2% gain to just a 0.2% rise for the year. That modest change would mark the third straight year of muted movement in the index following large pandemic-era volatility.
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The downgrade follows a 1.95% drop in the index from July through September, including a 0.6% decline in September compared with the same month a year earlier. September was also the first month since March 2025 when the monthly index did not exceed its year-ago level.
“As we enter Q4, interest rates are rising, consumer sentiment is falling, and yet a wealth effect from strong and sustained financial-asset growth is providing some offsetting cushion. Many metrics we watch are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth,” Cox Automotive’s chief economist Jeremy Robb said in a release.
Wholesale weakness is spreading
The historical average for the Manheim index is about a 2.3% year-over-year gain. By contrast, non-adjusted wholesale used-vehicle prices fell 1.2% year over year in September and slid 1.3% from August as depreciation accelerated during the third quarter.
The Manheim index measures prices of vehicles sold at Manheim U.S. wholesale auctions, and retail prices for consumers typically follow these wholesale trends.
Shifting demand: EVs gain, big vehicles lag
Cox reported that electric vehicles and off-lease supply are becoming larger forces in the used market. Values for EVs and smaller, fuel-efficient cars rose during the quarter while large trucks and SUVs lagged.
“The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly, increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers, wholesale prices have felt the sting,” Robb said.
Price pressure for consumers
Higher fuel costs are reshaping buyer preferences. The national average pump price in September was $4.33 per gallon, about 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023, according to AAA.
Cox says retail demand for used vehicles remains relatively healthy, but recent pricing suggests dealers may have reached a limit on what buyers will pay. As of August, the average listed price for a used vehicle stood at $27,239, while new vehicles averaged more than $50,000.
Most U.S. purchasers still opt for used cars because they are more affordable than new models, a long-standing dynamic that continues to shape the market.
